Holiday movies, songs, decorations and more illustrate the magic of waking up to a blanket of white on Christmas morning. If you’re dreaming of a white Christmas, these major cities have the best chance of seeing snow on Dec. 25, based on weather history. According to three-decade averages from the NOAA’s National Weather Service, these are the places where you’re most and least likely to get at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.
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Aspen, Colorado, is a popular winter mountain town destination, and for good reason — it’s one of about a dozen locations in the U.S. with a 100% historical chance of seeing a white Christmas.
One of the coldest cities in the world, Fairbanks, Alaska, gets its fair share of snow during the winter. It also has a 100% chance of snow on Christmas Day. Another major Alaskan city, Anchorage, isn’t far behind with a 96% chance.
More than a dozen Colorado destinations have a 90% or more chance of snow on Dec. 25. These include Crested Butte with 99% as well as other popular ski destinations like Silverton with 99%, Steamboat Springs with 98%, Telluride with 97% and Ouray with 93%.
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The metro area of Minneapolis-St. Paul has a 74% chance of Christmas snow, but if you’re in Minnesota and want to increase your chances for a blanket of white, there are a few locations with more than 90%, including Duluth, which has a 92% chance. Just make sure your skin is prepared for the harsh winter weather with these tips.
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Bozeman, Montana, is an underrated U.S. destination with plenty to offer year-round. During the winter, there’s a 91% chance of snow on Christmas Day. Another popular Montana destination, Whitefish, which is near Glacier National Park, has a 92% chance.
People living in Ogden, Utah, can prepare some fun science experiments to do in the snow ahead of the holidays because the valley just east of Ogden has a 91% chance of snow on Christmas Day.
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Buffalo, New York, may be known for its extreme winter weather, but at a 55% chance of a white Christmas, it’s not the place in the state most likely to see snow on Dec. 25. If you’re looking for Christmas Day snow in the Empire State, head to the coastal town of Lake Placid, which has an 87% chance of snow that day.
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Vermont is the setting of the classic holiday movie “White Christmas,” and those dreaming of a white Christmas of their own have a high likelihood of getting one in the capital city of Montpelier, which has a 81% chance of snow on Dec. 25.
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Home to the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire, which has a beautiful college campus, the city of Eau Claire has an 82% chance of having a white Christmas, among the highest in the state.
New Hampshire is home to the White Mountains, some of the most majestic mountains in the country. The town of North Conway, which has a 77% chance of a white Christmas, is the gateway to Mount Washington. The tallest peak in the Northeast, the mountain itself has a 94% chance of Christmas snow.
Although New York City is one of the most magical cities during the Christmas season, it’s actually not likely that Christmas Day here will look like a display in a department store window. The Big Apple only has a 10-12% chance of snow on Dec. 25.
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The museums, historic landmarks, White House and more in Washington, D.C., look dreamy dusted in snow. However, D.C. only has around a 6%-10% chance of seeing snow on Christmas Day. Nearby Baltimore, Maryland, only has a 10% chance as well.
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Another must-visit destination for historic sights, Philadelphia also has a low likelihood of a white Christmas. The City of Brotherly Love only has an 8% chance of snow on Dec. 25.
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Seattle is known more for its regular rainfall and less for its fluffy snow days. Alas, this pet-friendly city only has a 4%-5% chance of a white Christmas.
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Nashville is a city every American should visit, but when it comes to the holiday season, it has only a 2% chance of Christmas snow. If you’re looking for snow, it’s best to head further north.
Being further north in the U.S. isn’t the only factor that makes for snow on Christmas day. Despite being located in the Pacific Northwest, Portland, Oregon, has only a 2% chance of a white Christmas.
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One of the hardest-working cities in America, Charlotte, North Carolina, has only a 2% chance of seeing snow on Dec. 25.
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A romantic destination with its own kind of magic, Las Vegas unfortunately doesn’t become a literal winter wonderland around the holidays. It has a 0% chance of a white Christmas.
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Arizona is a warm-weather winter destination that many people flock to in order to escape the cold. While many of the state’s big cities like Phoenix have a 0% chance of snow on Christmas, part of the state can look like a winter wonderland. For example, Flagstaff has a 59% chance of a white Christmas.
There are countless things to see and do in California, however, seeing snow on Christmas Day isn’t one of them. While northeastern parts of the state might see snow, Los Angeles as well as other major cities like San Diego and San Francisco have a 0% chance of snow on Dec. 25.
Texans likely won’t need to winterize their home for heavy snow before Christmas. Most of the Lone Star state, including its biggest city, Houston, also has a 0% chance of a snowy dusting on Dec. 25.
Across Florida from Jacksonville to Miami to Tallahassee, all cities have a 0% historical chance of a white Christmas. The Sunshine State has experienced rare winter flurries in the past, but nothing that can compare to the most intense winter storms in U.S. history.
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